Forecasting PS Vita Launch Sales

I’ve long thought about the necessity of PS Vita. Its raison d’etre if you’d like. I did so because, in my opinion, it does not bring anything revolutionary to the table, from a hardware point of view. The 3DS has a 3D screen and you don’t need any glasses to experience the 3D effect. The iPhone (first generation) brought us the beauty and simplicity of the touchscreen, which along with the mouse and the click wheel was a revolutionary and disruptive user interface.

PS Vita brings us 2 analog sticks, a capacitive touchscreen on the front of the handheld and a rear touchpad. While touchscreens and touchpads are the norm today, depending on the hardware, two analog sticks is something definitely weird for a newcomer. For those of you who have owned a PSP before, it could very well be the most requested feature on a handheld. The main reason is that having two analog sticks allows you proper control over camera and character movement in the same time, imitating the control you get when using a real controller. This way, it’s possible to play all the modern games, either PS2 ports or PS3 spin-offs. Some say PS Vita is a bit late to the table and considering the competition they could be right. Others are saying the market for dedicated gaming handhelds is dying. This is why I wanted to see if I can forecast the PS Vita demand (and of course its initial sales).

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XBLA Market Overview and Forecast

We have a press release from FADE  (Forecasting and Analyzing Digital Entertainment LLC), a market research and consulting firm focused on electronic entertainment and the emerging download and mobile game markets. As their research points out, it seems that Microsoft has set a new record in October with a 91% growth in revenue over the same month of last year, $11.2 mil. USD. The firm estimates that Microsoft’s XBLA will brake the $100 million mark in terms of revenue this year. Check the press release below for details.

Dead Rising 2: Case Zero Beats Sonic 4 in Best October Ever

November 22nd, 2010 – As per the Research & Analysis division of analyst firm Forecasting & Analyzing Digital Entertainment, LLC (FADE), Microsoft set a new record in October, realizing 91% growth from last October in terms of revenue. October saw revenues of $11.2 million USD, with the yearly totals breaking the $100 million mark.

Dead Rising Continues to Sell Well After Retail Release

Despite the release of the retail release the prequel was designed for, ‘Dead Rising 2: Case Zero’ led sales when ordered by units sold, garnering 104,000 units sold  at 400 Microsoft Points during the month. The title is without question, the fastest selling XBLA title of the year, with over 600,000 units sold after three months on market. Close behind was Sega’s 2D console revival ‘Sonic the Hedgehog 4: Episode 1′, which sold an estimated 98,000 units at 1200 Microsoft Points per unit. The 4th game in the series did well among all platforms, selling an estimated 260,000 units between its four major platforms, with XBLA leading the way.

Other major titles were released during the ‘Game Feast’ promotion, which launched the last week of September. Critically-acclaimed platformer ‘Super Meat Boy’ employed a unique sale, offering the 1200 point title for just 800 points for the first few weeks of release. Meat Boy sold an estimated 70,000 units at the 800 point price, making it the 3rd best-selling title of the month. Twisted Pixel Games’ 3rd release on Xbox Live Arcade, ‘Comic Jumper’ sold a respectable 55,000 units at 1200 Microsoft points. Twisted Pixel Games has had a string of good fortune on XBLA, releasing ‘Splosion Man’ and ‘The Maw’ which also were met with success.

Revenues Nearly Double on Strong Game Lineup

“Traditionally, October has been the slowest month of the 2nd half of the year for Microsoft” said Benjamin Schlichter, Director of Research & Analysis at FADE. “However, through the ‘Games Feast’ promotion, and a strong title lineup, Microsoft saw the greatest year-on-year growth in October.” With revenues nearly reaching 2009′s yearly total, Microsoft looks to be in solid shape to realize double-digit growth for the entirety of the market. October is also the 2nd consecutive month of major growth, with September posting a 43% gain year-over-year. FADE anticipates November to continue the double-digit growth, and should see sales of between $11 million and $14 million USD.

Estimated Top 10 Titles for October 2010, by Units Sold:

  • Dead Rising 2: Case Zero (Capcom) – 104,000 Units (400 Microsoft Points/$5.00 USD)
  • Sonic The Hedgehog 4: Episode 1 (Sega) – 98,000 Units (1200 Microsoft Points/$15.00 USD)
  • Super Meat Boy (Team Meat) – 70,000 Units (800 Microsoft Points/$10.00 USD)
  • Comic Jumper (Twisted Pixel Games) – 55,000 Units (1200 Microsoft Points/$15.00 USD)
  • Plants vs. Zombies (PopCap Games) – 45,000 Units (1200 Microsoft Points/$15.00 USD)
  • LIMBO (Playdead) – 33,000 Units (1200 Microsoft Points/$15.00 USD)
  • Costume Quest (Double Fine Productions) – 31,000 Units (1200 Microsoft Points/$15.00 USD)
  • Castle Crashers (The Behemoth) – 28,000 Units (1200 Microsoft Points/$15.00 USD)
  • Trials HD (RedLynx) – 26,000 Units (1200 Microsoft Points/$15.00 USD)
  • Dead Space Ignition (Sumo Digital) – 26,000 Units (400 Microsoft Points/$5.00 USD)
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