GamaGanda

Well Pinky, it’s that time of the year again

When we play?

No Pinky, when we devise our plans for taking over the world… next year.

Oh, ok… can I be the the reindeer again? Pleeease?

Well, they’re right. Someone really has to show us they’re still in the game. 2010 for Microsoft was a tough year. Just look at their shares which took an upward trend last year, anticipating a new period of growth. Unfortunately, that wasn’t really the case this year. I’ll stick to games, X360 and Kinect.

The most important titles for Xbox 360 in 2010 were Mass Effect 2, Splinter Cell: Conviction, Alan Wake, Crackdown 2 and Halo: Reach. Of course, there are other titles out there, most notably Call of Duty: Black Ops, but the titles I mentioned were Xbox 360 (console) exclusives this year. Just Mass Effect 2 will be launched for the PS3 early 2011.

As well as hardware goes, Microsoft released the slim version of Xbox 360, a series of interesting bundles and, of course, Kinect, also available as a bundle. Kinect managed to sell 2.5 mil. units in the first 25 days, with Microsoft forecasting 5 million before year ends. Well, those forcasts are not that hard to do, as they mostly represent units pushed to retail. If they’ll sell 4.5 mil. or 5 mil. units this year, that’s not so important. All they were saying was that they intended from the very beginning to push 5 mil. units to retail. From I gathered during the last two months, retailers have also pushed Kinect forward through lots of buzz and advertising. The reason this happens is that the profit margin from selling Kinect should be a lot higher than selling Sony’s Move. For them, selling the Move or the Kinect is the same thing, but the two don’t carry the same price. I’d say that retailers’ partnership was a key point in Microsoft’s strategy, so they’ve pulled it off quite nicely.

What Kinect lacks (as well as Move) is the presence of a strong line-up of titles and this is the weakness that Sony anticipated, so the Move support for some of their key (upcoming) titles was one of their key points which helped them sell fast, but we’ll discuss that in the Trends 2011 article dedicated to Sony. Back to Microsoft now, I’d say that first thing for them in 2011, right from the beginning of the year, they should transmit a clear message about their upcoming titles. The first one that comes to mind is Gears of War 3 which was planned for April, but was delayed for November. The big announcement we all waited to happen at the VGA 2010 show, never was, but let’s hope for the better. The list gets even better with titles like Mass Effect 3, Dragon Age 2, Forza: Kinect, Kingdoms, Crysis 2, Bulletstorm, Dead Space 2, next CoD, next FIFA, Deus Ex: Human Revolution, Mortal Kombat, Portal 2, RAGE, Alice: Madness Returns, Batman: Arkham City, Battlefield 3, Brink, Driver: SanFrancisco, Duke Nukem Forever, I Am Alive, L.A. Noire, Thor: God of Thunder, as well as some other projects which could finally see the light of dawn (like Max Payne 3, GTA V, XCOM, PGR5, Hitman 5, Thief IV), along with some unannounced/unleaked projects. The reason I say this, is that Microsoft really took care of the hardware side of things in 2010, so the only logical move for them in 2011 is to do what they know how to do best… software, either first party or through the third-party partners. As you can see, the list is already quite generous, but there are a few things missing.

One of them is the casual line-up of titles. Yes, we all may be hardcore gamers or at least we crave for mature content, but let’s face it, they have launched Kinect, so they have to make you use it for as long as possible. This is why, for 2011 I’m expecting a rather long and strong line-up of casual titles for Kinect, as well as new announcements in major franchises like Halo.

The next thing missing from Microsoft’s portfolio is the number of exclusive franchises they have under their belt. Their number has been going down for a while now, for various reasons, so Microsoft should really take a look at their most fierce competitor, Sony, and try to do something about it. Software has always been Microsoft’s strength, although innovation is something they’re not so keen about. This is one of the major obstacles that Microsoft should try to leave behind in 2011. This is why they desperately need to own some new (or old), but epic franchises that can produce some really cool exclusives. This should put them back on track starting with 2012. If this doesn’t happen in at least 2 years time, it means they’re saving them for the next generation of hardware, which shouldn’t be that far away, 2-3 years.

The last thing on the menu addresses mostly the mobile market. They launched their next Windows Mobile this year, but my guess is they desperately need software to back them up, meaning we’ll probably see lots and lots of apps and games in the coming months. They officially stated that 1.5 million WP7 handsets were pushed to retailers in the first 6 weeks from launch, so depending on how they are managing the situation and what partners they choose, it’s possible that WP7 will really take off. Upcoming tablets based on Windows will spark apps for them, so if you’re in the business, get ready for a new offering.

Last but not least, we have the PC games market which has become the black hole of the industry. Ubisoft cheered when AC2′s protection was unbreakable for 30 days or so, but I don’t think this is the way to go. Selling games with unique codes for the multiplayer, online distribution and hopefully better prices can easily turn this around. There are many other marketing tools they can try, but it feels like there’s a very bad vibe when talking about the PC, so no one is really caring about innovation in this area. This COULD BE one of the biggest opportunities for some publishers/developers out there, so if it’s done right, the lack of competition on this field can really be the driving factor for some cool twists. If you realize that there’s plenty of room for titles DONE right and MARKETED right, then you’re in there for the win. Everybody is concentrated on the consoles, mobiles and tablets. A really cool title for the PC could be the surprise no one saw for 2011. I wish this will happen, though I fear it won’t.

That’s Trends 2011 for Microsoft. Take you will and comment if you feel like it. My conclusion on Microsoft for the upcoming year is that they’re in the best position to flex their (software) muscles and come up with some cool games and apps. It all depends on them seeing this opportunity and maximizing their advantages. It’s like they’re having a new foundation, so they have to start building on it. It all depends on how they planned for it, how they’ll manage it from now on and how everything will come into place. The market is on the rise again, not at a very high pace, but the rise is there, so there’s definitely potential for Microsoft to grow, especially in new territories (and I don’t mean that geographically).